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arthur smith's avatar

i agree that AI, biotech, and energy will lead to big change in a short period of time (using historical precedence).

with great respect for your overall observations, i must say i cannot imagine any significant form of "global governance" for a long time (decades at least).

i base this opinion on these data points:

1. European nations have much in common in our eyes, yet have different languages, cultures, etc. and have a long history of conflict. without the US intervening, and without globalization, i'm skeptical about even the EU becoming a governance model (expanding beyond commerce)

2. the EU can barely keep the economic union together due to conflicting national interests (and national interests are societal interests based on belief systems and cultural preferences)

3. many cultures have a strong past-orientation and their various histories include deep rifts

4. there are at least 2 major global philosophies that conflict about what is right/wrong, good/bad

5. NATO will likely only last as long as the US is part of it - due to conflicting national interests

6. "wealthy" nations would be economically decimated by global wealth distribution

7. the autocratic and monarchical governed nations have to be democratized first... good luck

8. quality and availability of global infrastructure (roads, power, etc.) varies too much

9. religious conflict prevents cooperation between many large and powerful nations

10. the UN is a feckless, bureaucratic, corrupt entity due to many of the items listed above

11. the whole continent of Africa is a disaster examined from any viewpoint

12. most Asians still live in poverty - and lack the concept of individual rights

13. most South Americans live in poverty - and resist being governed

i can add to this list...

considering the factors above, how will AI, biotech, or new energy sources change the world enough to overcome the many rivalries and hatreds that are almost as old as recorded history? especially in 25 years? i just don't see it...

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Gerd Leonhard's avatar

Very optimistic but I like it

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