My recent trip to China shows the incredible material progress for its citizens and contributions to the world's clean energy future but also the dangers of their authoritarian system in The AI Age
For decades, i worked with hundreds of folks with insights into US defense and intelligence. Based on that, and other sources i have two major points.
1.) US AI use in the intelligence and defense arenas is probably 20 to 30 years ahead of what is available to the public.
2.) China has used its AI to control the populace, while US (western) AI is used to enable the populace. This will give the west an advantage in commerce.
2.) my view on the "green economy" is that the prior administration and the DNC in general are trying to force 30 year results in 5 to 10 years (too much Al Gore influence).
I don't fully agree with your take on clean energy. America is going to be dusted in the global competition in clean energies unless we get our shit together and move much faster than we are currently doing. I'm open to a variety of methods to do that beyond what has been tried so far, mostly by the mainstream Dems, but the active resistance to this obvious way forward for cheaper, abundant, and, yes, clean, energy by the R's is just dumb, or at the very least ignorant. Anyone thinking even mildly about the future can see the value of rapidly shifting to energy as a technology, and not a commodity.
green energy is obvious long term (15+ years). but there are many issues to get there. it takes 9 months to have a baby... can't be rushed after a point. nuclear could be the fastest, but i worked on 2 nuclear power plants 1978 to 1982 and the regulations have since made those efforts nearly impossible. i drive thru miles of windmills regularly in texas. being green doesn't mean impactless... and they have to be where the wind is, meaning we have to build transmission lines...
then there are EVs. work well in cities. but need a lot of battery improvement to get across texas in a reasonable amount of time... also still the infrastructure in most towns.
I agree with what you are saying in the AI competition. I do think those who stand to benefit from freaking out about Chinese AI need to chill out a bit. AI is playing to all America's strengths - including what we have done in defense behind the curtain.
Arthur is basically right on this. China is sitting on a demographic time bomb that will undermine their recent high growth rates and upward trajectory - given the old economic model. However, AI and robotics may turn out to be the key to solving this demographic problem for China and all the advanced world. Any developed country that does not have a lot of immigration faces this same demographic challenge of too many old people and not enough young people to support them, and drive economic growth. This is happening in all Europe, Japan, Korea, and now with what Trump is doing with immigration, soon the US. BUT, the bots might save us as the tots taper off.
Ha, i do. China has major issues... more 70 years olds than 60 year olds. more 60 year olds than 50 year olds. more 50 year olds than 40 year olds. more 40 year olds than 30 year olds. more 30 year olds than 20 year olds. more 20 somethings than teens... that is a huge problem. younger people tend to be the creators (innovation). they are also the spenders (economics). in the next 10 to 15 years, china will have some empty cities unless they open their borders.
I agree strongly with @peterlyden that "China is not Russia, and it would be a much more formidable adversary in both a cold war or a hot one. We don’t want to go there." See: https://comw.org/pda/pda/dont-buy-a-cold-war-with-china-its-a-bad-deal/ Unfortunately for the world, the US national security establishment disagrees with us. It's not just the hyper-reactionaries now occupying the White House. Centrist Democrats remain fully committed to sustaining US hegemony/primacy in the Pacific and seeking to reinforce containment of China's regional influence -- that is, a commitment to confrontation and a threatening stance toward China, making eventual war likely.
Regarding global warming and the accelerating destruction of the Earth's vital ecology, @peterlyden relies excessively on technological change. That is important, but not sufficient. What will make a more significant positive difference for the global environment is a population decline, which demographers forecast for the next century. National leaders who are accustomed to celebrating GDP growth as the highest political goal will likely attempt to implement pronatalist policies, but these are likely to fall far short of reversing the trend of population decline in the wealthier nations. See: https://vulnerableadvocate.substack.com/p/the-global-environmental-crisis-what
Dealing with population declines will be extraordinarily difficult for the USA because financial capital has become dominant in its economic system. That sector of capital is particularly dependent on growing GDP for its profit opportunities. I expect financial capital will soon become a big fan of pronatalist policies.
China has more options. China has a financial capital sector as well, but it can more easily redistribute income to support an aging population (during the transition toward a sustainable level of population), pay the dividend of a shorter work week to workers as a result of higher productivity due to the positive benefits of AI, and tax away for public benefit excess profits accruing to financial capital.
china has different options, but not more options. they probably have fewer options. even with green energy (jets don't fly on batteries) they need petroleum and that is very easy to disrupt.
china can be contained the same way the ussr was contained by nato. the asian alliance will be japan, australia, new zealand, taiwan, s korea, philipines...
Peter,
Chinese AI versus US AI
For decades, i worked with hundreds of folks with insights into US defense and intelligence. Based on that, and other sources i have two major points.
1.) US AI use in the intelligence and defense arenas is probably 20 to 30 years ahead of what is available to the public.
2.) China has used its AI to control the populace, while US (western) AI is used to enable the populace. This will give the west an advantage in commerce.
Green economics
1.) highly recommend you watch what Scott Tinker (https://www.ted.com/talks/scott_tinker_the_dual_challenge_energy_and_environment) has to say about energy. he has a PBS show as well (https://www.pbs.org/show/energy-switch/). I find him to be knowledgeable on all aspects of the future of energy. He also seems to be open-minded as anybody I've come across. Finally, he acknowledges all data. He doesn't ignore the data that conflicts with his views...
2.) my view on the "green economy" is that the prior administration and the DNC in general are trying to force 30 year results in 5 to 10 years (too much Al Gore influence).
I don't fully agree with your take on clean energy. America is going to be dusted in the global competition in clean energies unless we get our shit together and move much faster than we are currently doing. I'm open to a variety of methods to do that beyond what has been tried so far, mostly by the mainstream Dems, but the active resistance to this obvious way forward for cheaper, abundant, and, yes, clean, energy by the R's is just dumb, or at the very least ignorant. Anyone thinking even mildly about the future can see the value of rapidly shifting to energy as a technology, and not a commodity.
green energy is obvious long term (15+ years). but there are many issues to get there. it takes 9 months to have a baby... can't be rushed after a point. nuclear could be the fastest, but i worked on 2 nuclear power plants 1978 to 1982 and the regulations have since made those efforts nearly impossible. i drive thru miles of windmills regularly in texas. being green doesn't mean impactless... and they have to be where the wind is, meaning we have to build transmission lines...
then there are EVs. work well in cities. but need a lot of battery improvement to get across texas in a reasonable amount of time... also still the infrastructure in most towns.
I agree with what you are saying in the AI competition. I do think those who stand to benefit from freaking out about Chinese AI need to chill out a bit. AI is playing to all America's strengths - including what we have done in defense behind the curtain.
Do you have any comments on the age demographics in China?
Arthur is basically right on this. China is sitting on a demographic time bomb that will undermine their recent high growth rates and upward trajectory - given the old economic model. However, AI and robotics may turn out to be the key to solving this demographic problem for China and all the advanced world. Any developed country that does not have a lot of immigration faces this same demographic challenge of too many old people and not enough young people to support them, and drive economic growth. This is happening in all Europe, Japan, Korea, and now with what Trump is doing with immigration, soon the US. BUT, the bots might save us as the tots taper off.
it really varies by industry. accounts and the like might consider learning plumbing, electrical, foundation, roofing, etc...
Ha, i do. China has major issues... more 70 years olds than 60 year olds. more 60 year olds than 50 year olds. more 50 year olds than 40 year olds. more 40 year olds than 30 year olds. more 30 year olds than 20 year olds. more 20 somethings than teens... that is a huge problem. younger people tend to be the creators (innovation). they are also the spenders (economics). in the next 10 to 15 years, china will have some empty cities unless they open their borders.
https://open.substack.com/pub/thiagodearagao/p/top-5-things-to-know-about-chinas?r=2di31u&utm_medium=ios
I agree strongly with @peterlyden that "China is not Russia, and it would be a much more formidable adversary in both a cold war or a hot one. We don’t want to go there." See: https://comw.org/pda/pda/dont-buy-a-cold-war-with-china-its-a-bad-deal/ Unfortunately for the world, the US national security establishment disagrees with us. It's not just the hyper-reactionaries now occupying the White House. Centrist Democrats remain fully committed to sustaining US hegemony/primacy in the Pacific and seeking to reinforce containment of China's regional influence -- that is, a commitment to confrontation and a threatening stance toward China, making eventual war likely.
Regarding global warming and the accelerating destruction of the Earth's vital ecology, @peterlyden relies excessively on technological change. That is important, but not sufficient. What will make a more significant positive difference for the global environment is a population decline, which demographers forecast for the next century. National leaders who are accustomed to celebrating GDP growth as the highest political goal will likely attempt to implement pronatalist policies, but these are likely to fall far short of reversing the trend of population decline in the wealthier nations. See: https://vulnerableadvocate.substack.com/p/the-global-environmental-crisis-what
Dealing with population declines will be extraordinarily difficult for the USA because financial capital has become dominant in its economic system. That sector of capital is particularly dependent on growing GDP for its profit opportunities. I expect financial capital will soon become a big fan of pronatalist policies.
China has more options. China has a financial capital sector as well, but it can more easily redistribute income to support an aging population (during the transition toward a sustainable level of population), pay the dividend of a shorter work week to workers as a result of higher productivity due to the positive benefits of AI, and tax away for public benefit excess profits accruing to financial capital.
china has different options, but not more options. they probably have fewer options. even with green energy (jets don't fly on batteries) they need petroleum and that is very easy to disrupt.
there is no AI without huge amounts of capital
china can be contained the same way the ussr was contained by nato. the asian alliance will be japan, australia, new zealand, taiwan, s korea, philipines...