Take the perspective of someone in 2050 and get a sense of how much better things could get in the next 25 years if we ignore the doomers and make the most of AI.
I appreciate this positive, hopeful outlook on our future. Thank you! It is men like you that will inspire the next generation to do boldly optimistic things we cannot even imagine right now.
The one paragraph that made me laugh was this: A public reckoning with the billionaire class forced them to contribute a much more equitable portion of their vast wealth to the common coffers and accept much stricter limits on how they could use their wealth to influence politics. That seems highly unlikely but anything is possible!
Keep writing, Peter - we need people who see like you do. It reminds me of the movie, Tomorrowland. They realized that the reason things were going badly was all the negative voices in society. Once that was changed, suddenly everything shifted because with hope comes motivation and energy to make the world a better place.
interesting forecast, and i think defensible on the whole.
it could go down like you suggest economically if the leaders in DC (and especially the DNC) stop thinking like Keynesians - this isn't 1920, and we are moving to a cyber driven economy.
i hit a few bumps in the road:
in 1930, the fed hired a lot of people (and just grew after that). if the fed becomes more efficient, as you expect, where will these people be employed? i don't recall you noting a UBI, but i suspect it will be part of the new formula that comes from the super majority you noted. the balance will have to be between "individual liberty with wealth accumulation" v "equity with government subsidization".
the "new cold war" with china will not go away. it might be less threatening than the cold war with the ussr, but geopolitical forces are not changed by AI - the US will still want a buffer between china and the pacific ocean (that is s korea, japan, australia, and duh duh duhhhhhh taiwain...); however, trump is already attempting to make the relationship one of mutual economic benefit (within the boundaries of china being blocked from direct, unfettered access to the pacific).
another china concern might be the significant population drop that will hit china. hopefully their leader will not pursue a desperate act of aggression as a last chance to grab control before the population and/or economy recedes...
i do question your optimism regarding education. the idea that people will retool for the next economic reality doesn't seem to apply anymore. when it required new "physical" skills it seemed to work that way pre-1970. but now the switch is from physical to intellectual. the skilled workers of the rust belt did not retool from welding, pipe fitting, etc. to programmers, system admins, etc.
i have trouble believing that the issue with education is the ability of teachers to teach. though i think they stop changes in the educational system that our nation and economy need... no, the problem is individuals not applying themselves, and parents not imposing education on their kids. my grandparents (witnessed the change from horse and buggy to flight) drove my parents to get a college education. they made many sacrifices so their kids (my parents) weren't uneducated. where i grew up, my parents generation as not near as gung-ho about their kids going to college. thus, the majority of my peers can use a computer, but have no clue how to make one work. them understanding AI (automated statistics) is a joke... just my view, and as defensible as any other i've seen on the topic.
human nature, like geopolitical forces, will not change between now and 2050...
Dream on. First of all, to frame your entire dream as if America is the only thing that matters in 2050 is crazy. This planet will not survive if nation states continue to be the primary framing of governance. Try reading Children of a Modest Star: Planetary Thinking in an Age of Crises.
Second, no mention of biodiversity, the oceans; complete handwave on climate; total assumption that the planetary systems human life depends on will continue to function when they're breaking down all around us (google AMOC).
Third, no acknowledgement that data centers for AI are completely destroying any hope of managing climate. (Musk installing 27 unpermitted methane-burning turbines; Utah building a data center 2-3 times the size of Manhattan)
No "new grand narrative" is credible without planetary thinking and the end of oligarchy.
I have read Children of a Modest Star and know Nils Gilman pretty well. (He has a good essay out today). In my book I absolutely go into the next stage of moving from globalization to the planetary. And I do a lot with China and other parts of the world.
I also lay out the politics that will end this era's Gilded Age like the last big one ended in The Progressive Era.
The point of this 2000 word relatively short essay was to remind people of all the positive things that could come from AI, but also other tech like clean tech and bioengineering. Too many people are getting way too anti-tech, anti-AI.
We will never be able to solve the challenges you point out without leveraging AI and maxing out clean tech and synthetic bio. The data centers will be worth it.
Corporate job reduction is the base upon which AI companies' revenue and profits depend. Not seeing any discussion here about what these supposedly new jobs will be. I notice the picture of the factory floor includes no humans. What jobs are the people who lost those jobs doing to earn income?
Russ, we knew each other in the early internet days at Wired. We had almost no idea what exactly people would do for a living off that new capability of connectivity but we were confident humans would figure it out.
My daughter, age 3 then, and in her 30s now, is a product manger job at Stack Overflow that she gets paid $200k to do. Back then we had no idea what a Stack Overflow would be (most people still don't know) or why someone would pay someone like her a shitload of money to be something called a "staff product manager."
And the unemployment rate today is about 4 percent, less than when you and I joined the workforce in the 1980s.
AI is going to be not that much different. Humans will figure out a million things to do and get compensated for.
Pete, I think in the early internet days at Wired we were writing stories about how kids shouldn't learn Spanish but computer languages because that's where the jobs would be. We said the Web would produce all kinds of jobs, starting with Web design, and that happened. In other words: jobs like the one your daughter has at Stack Overflow. (Congrats to her, BTW). Beyond working at an AI company, what new job categories are being predicted today?
David Hume:
“To say [the inference that the future will be like the past] is experimental [i.e., based on experience], is begging the question. For all inferences from experience suppose, as their foundation, that the future will resemble the past, and that similar powers will be conjoined with similar sensible qualities. If there be any suspicion that the course of nature may change, and that the past may be no rule for the future, all experience becomes useless, and can give rise to no inference or
conclusion. It is impossible, therefore, that any arguments from experience can prove this resemblance of the past to the future; since all these arguments are founded on the supposition of that resemblance.”
As with most conversation about this topic, this take ignores the basic issue of capability, corruptibility and control; a washing of the deception that is inherent in the current artificial intelligence race that has little to do with positive capacity and all to do with cynical power accrual; a pollyanna meandering through a pie-in-the-sky sci fi short story. So long as there are billionaires (period) (and) without accountability at the wheel of this vast and transformational moment, and the benefits are hedged in language of the golden economic egg of "productivity," the AI pivot will remain a poisoned chalice for the vast majority of humans. And I mean vast. I cannot say "bravo for putting it out there" because it is harmful to a clear eyed view of the real, draconian situation. Let's return to this smoke screen after the hard work is really done and start to tell ourselves then about our promising future.
In 2015 Obama, along with Samantha Power & Susan Rice signed this country on to Agenda 2030 which is a plan for global governance using 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) designed to address pressing social, economic and environmental issues. From this seemingly noble plan comes open borders, extreme taxation to solve climate change, phony activism, lawfare and corruption on a scale never seen before. And the list goes on. All intended to dismantle, or in Obama’s words fundamentally change, the freedoms and wealth created by the greatest country in history. The internet has provided exposure and awareness despite disinformation. Artificial Intelligence will help to peel the noble mask of today’s globalism to expose the truly destructive intentions.
I appreciate this positive, hopeful outlook on our future. Thank you! It is men like you that will inspire the next generation to do boldly optimistic things we cannot even imagine right now.
The one paragraph that made me laugh was this: A public reckoning with the billionaire class forced them to contribute a much more equitable portion of their vast wealth to the common coffers and accept much stricter limits on how they could use their wealth to influence politics. That seems highly unlikely but anything is possible!
Keep writing, Peter - we need people who see like you do. It reminds me of the movie, Tomorrowland. They realized that the reason things were going badly was all the negative voices in society. Once that was changed, suddenly everything shifted because with hope comes motivation and energy to make the world a better place.
well done Sir,
interesting forecast, and i think defensible on the whole.
it could go down like you suggest economically if the leaders in DC (and especially the DNC) stop thinking like Keynesians - this isn't 1920, and we are moving to a cyber driven economy.
i hit a few bumps in the road:
in 1930, the fed hired a lot of people (and just grew after that). if the fed becomes more efficient, as you expect, where will these people be employed? i don't recall you noting a UBI, but i suspect it will be part of the new formula that comes from the super majority you noted. the balance will have to be between "individual liberty with wealth accumulation" v "equity with government subsidization".
the "new cold war" with china will not go away. it might be less threatening than the cold war with the ussr, but geopolitical forces are not changed by AI - the US will still want a buffer between china and the pacific ocean (that is s korea, japan, australia, and duh duh duhhhhhh taiwain...); however, trump is already attempting to make the relationship one of mutual economic benefit (within the boundaries of china being blocked from direct, unfettered access to the pacific).
another china concern might be the significant population drop that will hit china. hopefully their leader will not pursue a desperate act of aggression as a last chance to grab control before the population and/or economy recedes...
i do question your optimism regarding education. the idea that people will retool for the next economic reality doesn't seem to apply anymore. when it required new "physical" skills it seemed to work that way pre-1970. but now the switch is from physical to intellectual. the skilled workers of the rust belt did not retool from welding, pipe fitting, etc. to programmers, system admins, etc.
i have trouble believing that the issue with education is the ability of teachers to teach. though i think they stop changes in the educational system that our nation and economy need... no, the problem is individuals not applying themselves, and parents not imposing education on their kids. my grandparents (witnessed the change from horse and buggy to flight) drove my parents to get a college education. they made many sacrifices so their kids (my parents) weren't uneducated. where i grew up, my parents generation as not near as gung-ho about their kids going to college. thus, the majority of my peers can use a computer, but have no clue how to make one work. them understanding AI (automated statistics) is a joke... just my view, and as defensible as any other i've seen on the topic.
human nature, like geopolitical forces, will not change between now and 2050...
still, bravo for you for putting this out there!!
I’d think there’d be much less immigration without a need for labor via automation, robotics, and AI.
https://substack.com/@groreppenwriting/note/c-260406979?r=5zi3bm&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
As with robots, it all depends on "who owns the increased productivity?"
As long as oligarchs hoard all the benefits, the rest of the world will be a starving underclass fighting for scraps.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/opinion/ai-labor-work-force-silicon-valley.html?smid=url-share
Dream on. First of all, to frame your entire dream as if America is the only thing that matters in 2050 is crazy. This planet will not survive if nation states continue to be the primary framing of governance. Try reading Children of a Modest Star: Planetary Thinking in an Age of Crises.
Second, no mention of biodiversity, the oceans; complete handwave on climate; total assumption that the planetary systems human life depends on will continue to function when they're breaking down all around us (google AMOC).
Third, no acknowledgement that data centers for AI are completely destroying any hope of managing climate. (Musk installing 27 unpermitted methane-burning turbines; Utah building a data center 2-3 times the size of Manhattan)
No "new grand narrative" is credible without planetary thinking and the end of oligarchy.
https://bookshop.org/p/books/children-of-a-modest-star-planetary-thinking-for-an-age-of-crises-jonathan-s-blake/0bb08c86f9606993?ean=9781503637856&next=t
I have read Children of a Modest Star and know Nils Gilman pretty well. (He has a good essay out today). In my book I absolutely go into the next stage of moving from globalization to the planetary. And I do a lot with China and other parts of the world.
I also lay out the politics that will end this era's Gilded Age like the last big one ended in The Progressive Era.
The point of this 2000 word relatively short essay was to remind people of all the positive things that could come from AI, but also other tech like clean tech and bioengineering. Too many people are getting way too anti-tech, anti-AI.
We will never be able to solve the challenges you point out without leveraging AI and maxing out clean tech and synthetic bio. The data centers will be worth it.
Nation states are the only defense of the corrupt intentions of globalism.
Corporate job reduction is the base upon which AI companies' revenue and profits depend. Not seeing any discussion here about what these supposedly new jobs will be. I notice the picture of the factory floor includes no humans. What jobs are the people who lost those jobs doing to earn income?
Russ, we knew each other in the early internet days at Wired. We had almost no idea what exactly people would do for a living off that new capability of connectivity but we were confident humans would figure it out.
My daughter, age 3 then, and in her 30s now, is a product manger job at Stack Overflow that she gets paid $200k to do. Back then we had no idea what a Stack Overflow would be (most people still don't know) or why someone would pay someone like her a shitload of money to be something called a "staff product manager."
And the unemployment rate today is about 4 percent, less than when you and I joined the workforce in the 1980s.
AI is going to be not that much different. Humans will figure out a million things to do and get compensated for.
Pete, I think in the early internet days at Wired we were writing stories about how kids shouldn't learn Spanish but computer languages because that's where the jobs would be. We said the Web would produce all kinds of jobs, starting with Web design, and that happened. In other words: jobs like the one your daughter has at Stack Overflow. (Congrats to her, BTW). Beyond working at an AI company, what new job categories are being predicted today?
David Hume:
“To say [the inference that the future will be like the past] is experimental [i.e., based on experience], is begging the question. For all inferences from experience suppose, as their foundation, that the future will resemble the past, and that similar powers will be conjoined with similar sensible qualities. If there be any suspicion that the course of nature may change, and that the past may be no rule for the future, all experience becomes useless, and can give rise to no inference or
conclusion. It is impossible, therefore, that any arguments from experience can prove this resemblance of the past to the future; since all these arguments are founded on the supposition of that resemblance.”
As with most conversation about this topic, this take ignores the basic issue of capability, corruptibility and control; a washing of the deception that is inherent in the current artificial intelligence race that has little to do with positive capacity and all to do with cynical power accrual; a pollyanna meandering through a pie-in-the-sky sci fi short story. So long as there are billionaires (period) (and) without accountability at the wheel of this vast and transformational moment, and the benefits are hedged in language of the golden economic egg of "productivity," the AI pivot will remain a poisoned chalice for the vast majority of humans. And I mean vast. I cannot say "bravo for putting it out there" because it is harmful to a clear eyed view of the real, draconian situation. Let's return to this smoke screen after the hard work is really done and start to tell ourselves then about our promising future.
In 2015 Obama, along with Samantha Power & Susan Rice signed this country on to Agenda 2030 which is a plan for global governance using 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) designed to address pressing social, economic and environmental issues. From this seemingly noble plan comes open borders, extreme taxation to solve climate change, phony activism, lawfare and corruption on a scale never seen before. And the list goes on. All intended to dismantle, or in Obama’s words fundamentally change, the freedoms and wealth created by the greatest country in history. The internet has provided exposure and awareness despite disinformation. Artificial Intelligence will help to peel the noble mask of today’s globalism to expose the truly destructive intentions.