To truly understand our historic moment, you need a comprehensive, big-picture, long-term perspective that deeply understands artificial intelligence & the next wave of transformative technologies
This is a conversation I am really looking forward to. Over the years Leyden has done a great job laying out big frameworks for understanding important issues, and I am sure that he will do that again The Great Progression. What I am interested in, in this conversation, is to learn about each set of transformational technologies and the range of possibilities within each that could serve humanity well. Leyden consistently gets attacked as being too much of a techno-optimist. I often agree. But having followed him for years now and having read his books what I have learned is that whether he is or isn’t too much of a techno-optimist is not the point. He always tells a story, a positive story, about how it could all work out. And then he identifies a bunch of things that could screw things up. Positive scenarios are hopeful, and more sustainable in that way. They are also the best lens to use when looking to find new opportunities. I wonder, for example, is it possible that AI can up-end Master Card’s ability to charge small businesses exorbitant fees far in excess of their operating costs? Or more generally, how might AI broadly disrupt the financial services sector? What I want over the next year is to understand the broad landscape of the AI/bio-tech revolution and what needs to happen to have it work out well for humanity. I want to know not only about the possibilities Leyden sees, but what you all see as well. Others can delve deeply into all the possible bad outcome. That is good and necessary work, but not what I have come to expect from Leyden. If there ever was a time when we need to be hopeful and find new solutions this is that time. I am really looking forward to this series!
Bart, thanks for that comment. I appreciate that and look forward to talking this through in our virtual conversations. I see that you signed up to be part of the paid network and join those conversations, which will start up after next week's essay that will be really worth discussing. Working on that now.
Thank you Peter, I look forward to further reading. A couple of questions, looking at your background, you appear to me to be a polymath?
Secondly, your focus on America when in fact this is a global focus, I think what you are preaching is global rather than just USA. The other unique thing we have seen in recent years (in the global west) is most if not all western countries have been politically left. Usually there is a mix of left and right wing governments between counties. Which I believe is why there has been a rise of left extremists (globally) and strong polarization. I have seen left wing people move more towards the centre because of this extremism and I think Trump has been the catalyst for pushback from the right saying enough is enough. I see this as having a flow on effect with other western countries (I’m Australian by the way) and I’d like to think we will see a paradigm shift. I have to say I like disruption because it challenges the norm and I like what the trump effect has done, he has a business background not politics. Rare to see a (big) business person go into politics.
I’ve always embraced technology from the start (even though I don’t make claim to be a tech guru) out of fear if I don’t I’ll be left behind, but I have to say with AI and new technologies coming hard and fast, I’m flat out keeping on top of it, so I trust your articles will enhance my perspective.
I'm no polymath, but I am a very intellectually curious person who moves on to do something different roughly every 5 years. So I have an unusually wide range of experiences over the course of my career.
The next 3 months will have an essay a week from me and we will get into a lot of different perspectives including more of the global and political analysis that you seem to want. Hang on for this ride.
I like what you're offering and have signed up. Though, I take one exception. I think the use of the word 'America' and focus on it as the hub, is now outdated. From what I've read here, and assume, you'll be writing on diverse aspects that reach beyond the US, especially given the now isolating approach of the current US administration. Let's think globally, which seemed implicit in your introduction. Surely, that is part of the new world your inflection point embrasses, and that you're so well equipped to address!
I will be writing a lot about the world outside America, for sure. But I would not count out America in the next 25 years either. For every action in politics, there is a reaction and I expect we will have a lot of shifts in American politics in the next few years. I'll be talking more about some of what I expect in the next few essays.
I have a technology question: do you think an organic, armed revolutionary movement could function (not succeed) in a developed country at this point, with the state's technological capabilities? I'm sure AI and tools which are in development have implications for this as well. What might they be?
If a government was importing rapists and murderers and actively eroding the normative social fabric it would clearly become a legitimate target for political violence. Let's say a government decided to protect certain categories of people, and that protection even extended to covering up horrific crimes including children and silencing/repressing criticism and exposure of the situation. Just as any government which begins murdering or falsely imprisoning its people loses its claim upon legitimacy, any government which actively covers up massive crimes against minors probably does as well.
My question is: how would technology affect an insurgent revolutionary movement? If people become determined to organize and kill agents of that oppressive state wouldn't the new capabilities of location monitoring and passive listening and network mapping thwart this? Do you think it's possible to fight for freedom by killing police and soldiers in an insurgency now, with the digital connection we all possess? I know that cell phone monitoring and jamming was used in Fallujah and Ramadi, and US Army and Marine Corps intelligence used sigint and humint to penetrate insurgent networks, but that was a much more lawless context, and assistance was being lent to the fighters by Iran. Even if people forewent the use of social media and smart phones and modern comms networks altogether, that abstention would easily mark them for targeting and elimination by the government. Do you think a revolutionary struggle against an oppressive state would even be possible in Europe at this point?
Every population retains the sacred right to fight for its lives and its future... but have we passed that point?
I do think that AI eventually could be used on both sides of a ledger - by a government or an insurgent group. I would say that is one of the big issues in the geopolitical battle going on between our current democracies in the west and autocracies like in China. Depending on your country, and on your politics, will make a different in who you want to have AI capabilities. A lot of that will have to be worked out in the coming years.
But are you giving thoughtful, critical, analysis of the pros AND the cons? Will you discuss the possible (likely?) dangers that lie ahead and how we can avoid them? Or are you just a cheer leader for technology? So far, I’m wary of this series ….
In previous stories I did in my Substack series of the last couple years, I did deal with the risks of AI, and held an event that gathered a dozen perspectives on that topic. (You can find them in the archives.) But I really do think there are plenty of other writers and organizations that focus on all that and that you might want to follow them to gain that perspective. I am going to focus the bulk of my time and energy on what at the positive possibilities of this technology and other transformative ones too. Fewer people are doing that right now. We need more insights into the true potential.
This is a conversation I am really looking forward to. Over the years Leyden has done a great job laying out big frameworks for understanding important issues, and I am sure that he will do that again The Great Progression. What I am interested in, in this conversation, is to learn about each set of transformational technologies and the range of possibilities within each that could serve humanity well. Leyden consistently gets attacked as being too much of a techno-optimist. I often agree. But having followed him for years now and having read his books what I have learned is that whether he is or isn’t too much of a techno-optimist is not the point. He always tells a story, a positive story, about how it could all work out. And then he identifies a bunch of things that could screw things up. Positive scenarios are hopeful, and more sustainable in that way. They are also the best lens to use when looking to find new opportunities. I wonder, for example, is it possible that AI can up-end Master Card’s ability to charge small businesses exorbitant fees far in excess of their operating costs? Or more generally, how might AI broadly disrupt the financial services sector? What I want over the next year is to understand the broad landscape of the AI/bio-tech revolution and what needs to happen to have it work out well for humanity. I want to know not only about the possibilities Leyden sees, but what you all see as well. Others can delve deeply into all the possible bad outcome. That is good and necessary work, but not what I have come to expect from Leyden. If there ever was a time when we need to be hopeful and find new solutions this is that time. I am really looking forward to this series!
Bart, thanks for that comment. I appreciate that and look forward to talking this through in our virtual conversations. I see that you signed up to be part of the paid network and join those conversations, which will start up after next week's essay that will be really worth discussing. Working on that now.
Thank you Peter, I look forward to further reading. A couple of questions, looking at your background, you appear to me to be a polymath?
Secondly, your focus on America when in fact this is a global focus, I think what you are preaching is global rather than just USA. The other unique thing we have seen in recent years (in the global west) is most if not all western countries have been politically left. Usually there is a mix of left and right wing governments between counties. Which I believe is why there has been a rise of left extremists (globally) and strong polarization. I have seen left wing people move more towards the centre because of this extremism and I think Trump has been the catalyst for pushback from the right saying enough is enough. I see this as having a flow on effect with other western countries (I’m Australian by the way) and I’d like to think we will see a paradigm shift. I have to say I like disruption because it challenges the norm and I like what the trump effect has done, he has a business background not politics. Rare to see a (big) business person go into politics.
I’ve always embraced technology from the start (even though I don’t make claim to be a tech guru) out of fear if I don’t I’ll be left behind, but I have to say with AI and new technologies coming hard and fast, I’m flat out keeping on top of it, so I trust your articles will enhance my perspective.
I'm no polymath, but I am a very intellectually curious person who moves on to do something different roughly every 5 years. So I have an unusually wide range of experiences over the course of my career.
The next 3 months will have an essay a week from me and we will get into a lot of different perspectives including more of the global and political analysis that you seem to want. Hang on for this ride.
I like what you're offering and have signed up. Though, I take one exception. I think the use of the word 'America' and focus on it as the hub, is now outdated. From what I've read here, and assume, you'll be writing on diverse aspects that reach beyond the US, especially given the now isolating approach of the current US administration. Let's think globally, which seemed implicit in your introduction. Surely, that is part of the new world your inflection point embrasses, and that you're so well equipped to address!
I will be writing a lot about the world outside America, for sure. But I would not count out America in the next 25 years either. For every action in politics, there is a reaction and I expect we will have a lot of shifts in American politics in the next few years. I'll be talking more about some of what I expect in the next few essays.
I have a technology question: do you think an organic, armed revolutionary movement could function (not succeed) in a developed country at this point, with the state's technological capabilities? I'm sure AI and tools which are in development have implications for this as well. What might they be?
If a government was importing rapists and murderers and actively eroding the normative social fabric it would clearly become a legitimate target for political violence. Let's say a government decided to protect certain categories of people, and that protection even extended to covering up horrific crimes including children and silencing/repressing criticism and exposure of the situation. Just as any government which begins murdering or falsely imprisoning its people loses its claim upon legitimacy, any government which actively covers up massive crimes against minors probably does as well.
My question is: how would technology affect an insurgent revolutionary movement? If people become determined to organize and kill agents of that oppressive state wouldn't the new capabilities of location monitoring and passive listening and network mapping thwart this? Do you think it's possible to fight for freedom by killing police and soldiers in an insurgency now, with the digital connection we all possess? I know that cell phone monitoring and jamming was used in Fallujah and Ramadi, and US Army and Marine Corps intelligence used sigint and humint to penetrate insurgent networks, but that was a much more lawless context, and assistance was being lent to the fighters by Iran. Even if people forewent the use of social media and smart phones and modern comms networks altogether, that abstention would easily mark them for targeting and elimination by the government. Do you think a revolutionary struggle against an oppressive state would even be possible in Europe at this point?
Every population retains the sacred right to fight for its lives and its future... but have we passed that point?
I do think that AI eventually could be used on both sides of a ledger - by a government or an insurgent group. I would say that is one of the big issues in the geopolitical battle going on between our current democracies in the west and autocracies like in China. Depending on your country, and on your politics, will make a different in who you want to have AI capabilities. A lot of that will have to be worked out in the coming years.
But are you giving thoughtful, critical, analysis of the pros AND the cons? Will you discuss the possible (likely?) dangers that lie ahead and how we can avoid them? Or are you just a cheer leader for technology? So far, I’m wary of this series ….
In previous stories I did in my Substack series of the last couple years, I did deal with the risks of AI, and held an event that gathered a dozen perspectives on that topic. (You can find them in the archives.) But I really do think there are plenty of other writers and organizations that focus on all that and that you might want to follow them to gain that perspective. I am going to focus the bulk of my time and energy on what at the positive possibilities of this technology and other transformative ones too. Fewer people are doing that right now. We need more insights into the true potential.
Peter, have you been following Azeem, Exponential View? If not, you may appreciate his substack.
Yes, I do follow him, and I had a long meeting with him a couple weeks ago when he was last in San Francisco, my base. We have a lot of synergies.
Thank you. I appreciate the answer.