This new series will rough out a new grand narrative of our historic opportunity to harness AI and other transformative technologies in order to make a much better world in the next 25 years
The Fourth Turning is here - but we are in an extraordinary times. We need a lot of resilience, and that comes from hope and creativity over reactivity. How we frame things shapes our perception, and our perception influences our actions.
It might be worth noting that each stage of Progression has its own Barons: the Land Barons of Colonial America; the Slave Barons of the Cotton Economy; the Robber Barons of the Industrial Age; and today's Tech Barons. They are important not because of their wealth but because they are personifiers of that wealth. In their time, they are also avatars of inequality and reminders of the need to democratize.
no doubt, slavery was oppression. but other than that, i don't buy the oppressors/oppressed story line in the US. the "land barons" of the colonial age is using a bit of artistic license... the "Robber Barons" were out of control, but the solution was government intervention - always a risk. when has the world every not had "inequality" and where was that?
Pete is a futurist and it is worth understanding the world that he sees coming. He is an optimistic light that shines even brighter in such dark times.
Peter, this is a vital reframing of our moment—clear-eyed, wide-lens, and long overdue. You’re right: 2025 is not just another election year, it’s a civilizational hinge.
But we can’t afford to only celebrate the birth of new systems without naming the forces midwifing them—or the ones hijacking them.
Yes, AI, clean energy, and bioengineering are reaching inflection points. But exponential tech without democratic scaffolding becomes exponential extraction. We’re not just in a Great Progression—we’re in a Great Contest over who builds, who benefits, and who governs.
While you focus on building the next systems (which we agree is urgent), some of us are also focused on shielding what’s left of the democratic substrate they must grow on. Because this isn’t just the end of the long 20th century—it’s also the potential beginning of a post-democratic age, if we aren’t careful.
The real opportunity is fusing both imperatives:
• Protect core institutions from authoritarian collapse
• Build next-gen systems that are decentralized, just, and human-centered
Let’s dream forward. But let’s not sleepwalk past the war for control over the very tools we’re hoping to liberate humanity with.
We’re building too—from Arizona, from the ground up. Let’s stay in conversation.
I like how you frame this. I think the two front approach is essential, but I would argue we have way more people defending the old systems to slow down the dismantling than on the other side of envisioning what could come next. Very few out on that side, and that's where I am trying to focus my energy. But you put your energy where it is best used. We need both fronts.
with all respect, and you are quite articulate, i find this quote interesting "While you focus on building the next systems (which we agree is urgent), some of us are also focused on shielding what’s left of the democratic substrate they must grow on. Because this isn’t just the end of the long 20th century - it’s also the potential beginning of a post-democratic age, if we aren’t careful."
it sounds like a modernized version of the caveats expressed about the thoughts expressed by copernicus, newton, galileo, bruno, voltaire, darwin, and pascal.
i suppose changes to the status quo are always seen as a severe threat by a significant part of any society. something has to change in my opinion, and it isn't joust doubling down on what we have done since 1940 because:
- we are at each other's throats with little or no tolerance.
- some want to undo the constitution (or huge elements of if like the electoral college, stacking the scotus, voting rights, citizenship rights, etc.)
I appreciate the nuance in your response I’d offer this: shielding democracy and evolving beyond its current failures aren’t mutually exclusive. In fact, failing to evolve may be the most dangerous threat to democracy of all.
Yes, we must protect constitutional rights and the civic substrate they grow on but we also have to confront the fact that many of those “foundations” were built for a world that no longer exists. The 20th-century scaffolding is now used to entrench minority rule, economic extraction, and institutional stagnation. That’s not preservation. That’s paralysis.
Change doesn’t always mean destruction. It can mean upgrading the system so it serves more people, more fairly, more transparently. If we can’t do that, then we aren’t shielding democracy, we’re embalming it.
I am looking forward to this series! Your words of common sense and your encouraging vision of the future have been extremely helpful for me in quelling my trepidation about the changes that will happen in the next several decades. Thank you for your voice of optimistic sanity!
let's deal with the elephant in the room. The current progress in AI is still not understood by general population but instead it's fear of unknown and "what about me, the victim" is the common notion that is expressed. Not all progress in current tech evolution could lead de-shackling of our psychee and hopefully this space could provide some insight to help with understanding. However, the current regime has set their sights on AI surveillance and what is worse unaccounted manipulation of facts. That is going to be the tremendous obstacle and challenge to overcome. A proper oversight is essential and until that is established we are going to be in trouble.
Charlie, good to hear you are engaged. You can forward this email around to whoever you think might like it. And they can easily subscribe for free to read. Or a modest monthly charge to take part in the virtual gatherings.
I'd like to believe there is much more to hope for than to fear, however I don't think humanity has evolved enough as a species or a society to harness the full power of things like AI or quantum computing. My fear is that corrupting money influences + a large portion of the population being relatively stupid and easily manipulated will result in something that takes things dramatically forward for a handful of oligarchs and their supporting cast.
If AI continues to develop at a rapid pace, then less and less humans will be needed for manual labor. The human race becomes mouths to feed, rather than human resources. We're not all going to be painting at our own island mansion in utopia. I don't see capitalism going away - it's just going to get restructured. I see more Blade Runner than Utopia ahead.
We have more people out of poverty than before - that IS true, but it sure seems like there is a hell of a lot of starving masses who are desperately trying to find someone to care for them. Pew research has close to 300 million people are global migrants. That's probably a smaller percentage than historically (We're at about 8 billion people in the world), but that's a lot of people.
As an American my view is that two things can be true at the same time - our lives are both better and worse than recent history. We can communicate globally 24 hours a day and have access to so much information and we mostly post cat video, argue with strangers, take endless photos of ourselves, etc. The internet felt healthier when it was mostly about buying stuff we needed more easily, playing a game, using a dictionary, etc. Social media is a mirror and many of us are UGLY where it matters most - inside.
I hope optimists like Peter are right. I have no problem being dunked on via the internet, as I'm old enough not to care about my social media street cred. I just don't see the evidence for humanity getting it right for the larger group when the levers of power are so openly corrupted by money. Some of it brazen like Elon Musk/DODGE, but most of it hidden via corporate lobbyists. Congress and Senate are corrupt and now they get to be media celebrities too, so they all want the jobs.
And I'm not even the full bleeding heart type. I don't believe in universal income or free welfare for life. I just think we're going backward as a country. Our people are gullible, free of much critical thinking, vain. A full third of them seem to be in a cult. THESE people are going to be part of unlocking the human potential of AI? No they are the mob to be stirred up and used by whichever monied interest can control their reality. Entertaining them and selling them merch is much cheaper than building a society. Screen resolution baby! Now someone get me a better return on my 500,000 stock options I get for going to conferences. Daddy needs a new helicopter to get to his yacht!
(Sorry this is long, but Peter raises a weighty topic and this is first time I've seen it crystalized this way.)
The way I see it, we have a few chunks of society:
Retiring boomers - large in number, expect their social security, DGAF about Gen Z problems...except for their own individual family members who are all special and totally deserve something better. They are about 21% of our population.
Gen-X/Millenials - People in prime working age are large portion but many of them are going to have jobs that AI will incinerate over the next decade. Another large chunk are dumb as shit, unmotivated and just want to take selfies. I see a shrinking of the "professional class". Not a terrible thing if we can replace that with a larger technical class - people who work with their hands because machines cannot replace every human element effectively. If these people are well-paid and not abused, you can build a new society.
Gen-Z and younger - Sadly I fear parenting and the educational system have not prepared these people well for the future. These kids don't know a world without the internet and smart phones and many of the trappings that I fear have exposed an ugliness in our society. Is there a way to transfer that understanding of what life was like before without it just being something to read about in a history book. I fear this is a hand the baton off moment and it's important we set these people up for success, but without coddling them.
Boomers are going to need home health aides and I don't think GenZ is going to want that pain in the ass job. The Boomers are going to change their mind about immigration when that robot wiping their ass isn't gentle enough, however AI + the right algorithm can make that wipe personalized!
you make some legitimate points. on the other hand:
> i think you radically underestimate GenX-GenY
> we don't know what GenZ and Alpha will become - why assume the worst?
> my grandparents said the same things about our generation (me and you) not being prepared
> i remember my math teachers saying the world would end if kids were allowed to use calculators in school...
> social media sucks, but the truth is, all it does is reveal an aspect of humanity that is always lurking and waiting for a trigger - now we have a chance to expose that darkness found in all humans to some light...
> if you follow the geopolitical analysts (i suggest George Friedman and Peter Zeihan as two worthy professionals) they see a bright future for the US
> you prediction about boomers and immigration is moot - albeit funny
The great regression. I returned to might makes right by weilding economic power to increase a stratified society relegating those perceived as lessor or different to servitude. Or to put it differently, mediocre white men with money want to make sure that nobody can take their place at the top of the heap
I’m not buying it. A1 will simply be another way for the owners to transfer more wealth from us (the little people) to them (the space travelers). Look at history, with the exception of a few generations when has this not happened?
If everyone were intelligent enough to understand what you are writing about, it would be a no-brainer, but 50% of the population has an IQ of 100 or less and can not comprehend or imagine the future more than a week in advance. There will be many displaced people who can not adapt to the next technological advancements and become angry and possibly violent, like during the Luddite revolts in the early 19th century, when machines started to replace manual labor, but the bad times will pass, and hopefully the government will not execute the protesters as they did in the late 19th century to discourage further protests!
Absolutely no mention of Bitcoin anywhere on this blog, What a huge miss. Other S curve projections seems to be mostly on track. Projection of "Global Governance" sounds like a lot like WEF agenda and autocratic surveillance state to me.
This feels like a 12yr old wrote this? am I crazy? This is surface-level understanding presented as deep insight by someone who's been drinking their own Kool-Aid for decades.
The Fourth Turning is here - but we are in an extraordinary times. We need a lot of resilience, and that comes from hope and creativity over reactivity. How we frame things shapes our perception, and our perception influences our actions.
many people thought 9/11 was the start of the 4th turning... seems a generation was skipped...
It might be worth noting that each stage of Progression has its own Barons: the Land Barons of Colonial America; the Slave Barons of the Cotton Economy; the Robber Barons of the Industrial Age; and today's Tech Barons. They are important not because of their wealth but because they are personifiers of that wealth. In their time, they are also avatars of inequality and reminders of the need to democratize.
no doubt, slavery was oppression. but other than that, i don't buy the oppressors/oppressed story line in the US. the "land barons" of the colonial age is using a bit of artistic license... the "Robber Barons" were out of control, but the solution was government intervention - always a risk. when has the world every not had "inequality" and where was that?
this all sounds too much like Marx.
Pete is a futurist and it is worth understanding the world that he sees coming. He is an optimistic light that shines even brighter in such dark times.
I agree with you though it seems you might be implying humanity hasn't tended to improve for 4,000+ years.
what are the conditions that lead you to depict these times as "such dark times"?
i ask because in my life in the US we have:
> dramatically increased civil rights (from segregation to a Black President)
> opened civil rights for women (CEOs, VPs, astronauts, senators, etc.)
> made same sex marriage legal
> essentially cured aids
> lowered the voting age from 21 to 18
> eliminated the draft
> raised the poverty level to a degree that exceeds the middle class for the rest of the world
no time to stop improving, but hardly dark times
Peter, this is a vital reframing of our moment—clear-eyed, wide-lens, and long overdue. You’re right: 2025 is not just another election year, it’s a civilizational hinge.
But we can’t afford to only celebrate the birth of new systems without naming the forces midwifing them—or the ones hijacking them.
Yes, AI, clean energy, and bioengineering are reaching inflection points. But exponential tech without democratic scaffolding becomes exponential extraction. We’re not just in a Great Progression—we’re in a Great Contest over who builds, who benefits, and who governs.
While you focus on building the next systems (which we agree is urgent), some of us are also focused on shielding what’s left of the democratic substrate they must grow on. Because this isn’t just the end of the long 20th century—it’s also the potential beginning of a post-democratic age, if we aren’t careful.
The real opportunity is fusing both imperatives:
• Protect core institutions from authoritarian collapse
• Build next-gen systems that are decentralized, just, and human-centered
Let’s dream forward. But let’s not sleepwalk past the war for control over the very tools we’re hoping to liberate humanity with.
We’re building too—from Arizona, from the ground up. Let’s stay in conversation.
— Vario
I like how you frame this. I think the two front approach is essential, but I would argue we have way more people defending the old systems to slow down the dismantling than on the other side of envisioning what could come next. Very few out on that side, and that's where I am trying to focus my energy. But you put your energy where it is best used. We need both fronts.
with all respect, and you are quite articulate, i find this quote interesting "While you focus on building the next systems (which we agree is urgent), some of us are also focused on shielding what’s left of the democratic substrate they must grow on. Because this isn’t just the end of the long 20th century - it’s also the potential beginning of a post-democratic age, if we aren’t careful."
it sounds like a modernized version of the caveats expressed about the thoughts expressed by copernicus, newton, galileo, bruno, voltaire, darwin, and pascal.
i suppose changes to the status quo are always seen as a severe threat by a significant part of any society. something has to change in my opinion, and it isn't joust doubling down on what we have done since 1940 because:
- we are at each other's throats with little or no tolerance.
- some want to undo the constitution (or huge elements of if like the electoral college, stacking the scotus, voting rights, citizenship rights, etc.)
- some want to undo our economic foundations
best
I appreciate the nuance in your response I’d offer this: shielding democracy and evolving beyond its current failures aren’t mutually exclusive. In fact, failing to evolve may be the most dangerous threat to democracy of all.
Yes, we must protect constitutional rights and the civic substrate they grow on but we also have to confront the fact that many of those “foundations” were built for a world that no longer exists. The 20th-century scaffolding is now used to entrench minority rule, economic extraction, and institutional stagnation. That’s not preservation. That’s paralysis.
Change doesn’t always mean destruction. It can mean upgrading the system so it serves more people, more fairly, more transparently. If we can’t do that, then we aren’t shielding democracy, we’re embalming it.
we agree
I am looking forward to this series! Your words of common sense and your encouraging vision of the future have been extremely helpful for me in quelling my trepidation about the changes that will happen in the next several decades. Thank you for your voice of optimistic sanity!
hopeful
let's deal with the elephant in the room. The current progress in AI is still not understood by general population but instead it's fear of unknown and "what about me, the victim" is the common notion that is expressed. Not all progress in current tech evolution could lead de-shackling of our psychee and hopefully this space could provide some insight to help with understanding. However, the current regime has set their sights on AI surveillance and what is worse unaccounted manipulation of facts. That is going to be the tremendous obstacle and challenge to overcome. A proper oversight is essential and until that is established we are going to be in trouble.
the public didn't understand radio communications, chemistry, flight, electronic computing, etc. what is new?
I love this Peter. I'd love to help get your message forward and connecting with the right people.
Charlie, good to hear you are engaged. You can forward this email around to whoever you think might like it. And they can easily subscribe for free to read. Or a modest monthly charge to take part in the virtual gatherings.
I'd like to believe there is much more to hope for than to fear, however I don't think humanity has evolved enough as a species or a society to harness the full power of things like AI or quantum computing. My fear is that corrupting money influences + a large portion of the population being relatively stupid and easily manipulated will result in something that takes things dramatically forward for a handful of oligarchs and their supporting cast.
If AI continues to develop at a rapid pace, then less and less humans will be needed for manual labor. The human race becomes mouths to feed, rather than human resources. We're not all going to be painting at our own island mansion in utopia. I don't see capitalism going away - it's just going to get restructured. I see more Blade Runner than Utopia ahead.
We have more people out of poverty than before - that IS true, but it sure seems like there is a hell of a lot of starving masses who are desperately trying to find someone to care for them. Pew research has close to 300 million people are global migrants. That's probably a smaller percentage than historically (We're at about 8 billion people in the world), but that's a lot of people.
As an American my view is that two things can be true at the same time - our lives are both better and worse than recent history. We can communicate globally 24 hours a day and have access to so much information and we mostly post cat video, argue with strangers, take endless photos of ourselves, etc. The internet felt healthier when it was mostly about buying stuff we needed more easily, playing a game, using a dictionary, etc. Social media is a mirror and many of us are UGLY where it matters most - inside.
I hope optimists like Peter are right. I have no problem being dunked on via the internet, as I'm old enough not to care about my social media street cred. I just don't see the evidence for humanity getting it right for the larger group when the levers of power are so openly corrupted by money. Some of it brazen like Elon Musk/DODGE, but most of it hidden via corporate lobbyists. Congress and Senate are corrupt and now they get to be media celebrities too, so they all want the jobs.
And I'm not even the full bleeding heart type. I don't believe in universal income or free welfare for life. I just think we're going backward as a country. Our people are gullible, free of much critical thinking, vain. A full third of them seem to be in a cult. THESE people are going to be part of unlocking the human potential of AI? No they are the mob to be stirred up and used by whichever monied interest can control their reality. Entertaining them and selling them merch is much cheaper than building a society. Screen resolution baby! Now someone get me a better return on my 500,000 stock options I get for going to conferences. Daddy needs a new helicopter to get to his yacht!
(Sorry this is long, but Peter raises a weighty topic and this is first time I've seen it crystalized this way.)
The way I see it, we have a few chunks of society:
Retiring boomers - large in number, expect their social security, DGAF about Gen Z problems...except for their own individual family members who are all special and totally deserve something better. They are about 21% of our population.
Gen-X/Millenials - People in prime working age are large portion but many of them are going to have jobs that AI will incinerate over the next decade. Another large chunk are dumb as shit, unmotivated and just want to take selfies. I see a shrinking of the "professional class". Not a terrible thing if we can replace that with a larger technical class - people who work with their hands because machines cannot replace every human element effectively. If these people are well-paid and not abused, you can build a new society.
Gen-Z and younger - Sadly I fear parenting and the educational system have not prepared these people well for the future. These kids don't know a world without the internet and smart phones and many of the trappings that I fear have exposed an ugliness in our society. Is there a way to transfer that understanding of what life was like before without it just being something to read about in a history book. I fear this is a hand the baton off moment and it's important we set these people up for success, but without coddling them.
Boomers are going to need home health aides and I don't think GenZ is going to want that pain in the ass job. The Boomers are going to change their mind about immigration when that robot wiping their ass isn't gentle enough, however AI + the right algorithm can make that wipe personalized!
you make some legitimate points. on the other hand:
> i think you radically underestimate GenX-GenY
> we don't know what GenZ and Alpha will become - why assume the worst?
> my grandparents said the same things about our generation (me and you) not being prepared
> i remember my math teachers saying the world would end if kids were allowed to use calculators in school...
> social media sucks, but the truth is, all it does is reveal an aspect of humanity that is always lurking and waiting for a trigger - now we have a chance to expose that darkness found in all humans to some light...
> if you follow the geopolitical analysts (i suggest George Friedman and Peter Zeihan as two worthy professionals) they see a bright future for the US
> you prediction about boomers and immigration is moot - albeit funny
So you think destroying state capacity and initiating a for profit tech oligarchy is the springboard to utopia. OK
don't think anybody said that. but what should be feared more than state "capacity"?
Enjoy your oligarchy, son.
so you don't want your ideas challenged. you just want to share your fears? ok. whatever, boy.
You fear democracy.
Ro, i don't fear democracy. i fear its abuse. i have some good company...
"It's not tyranny we desire, but a just, LIMITED federal government" - Alexander Hamilton
"A true patriot will defend his country from its government" - Thomas Jefferson
"Crises is the rallying cry of the tyrant" - James Madison
"Democracy is the most vile form of government" - James Madison
"Government is at best a petulant servant and at worst a tyrannical master" - George Washington
The great regression. I returned to might makes right by weilding economic power to increase a stratified society relegating those perceived as lessor or different to servitude. Or to put it differently, mediocre white men with money want to make sure that nobody can take their place at the top of the heap
Please find another lens for looking the world - for you sanity...
I’m not buying it. A1 will simply be another way for the owners to transfer more wealth from us (the little people) to them (the space travelers). Look at history, with the exception of a few generations when has this not happened?
i got an MS in Data Analytics (ML/AI) at the age of 63. if i can do it, you can do it.
Then don't be a sucker. Educate yourself and get onboard the innovation train!!!
If everyone were intelligent enough to understand what you are writing about, it would be a no-brainer, but 50% of the population has an IQ of 100 or less and can not comprehend or imagine the future more than a week in advance. There will be many displaced people who can not adapt to the next technological advancements and become angry and possibly violent, like during the Luddite revolts in the early 19th century, when machines started to replace manual labor, but the bad times will pass, and hopefully the government will not execute the protesters as they did in the late 19th century to discourage further protests!
Absolutely no mention of Bitcoin anywhere on this blog, What a huge miss. Other S curve projections seems to be mostly on track. Projection of "Global Governance" sounds like a lot like WEF agenda and autocratic surveillance state to me.
Your article inspired me to write this article from a different perspective. I'd love you to see it when you have 6 mins.
Time to Be Conscious: Why Conscious Evolution Is This Generation’s Calling
We’re living through an 80-year cycle of civilizational transformation. This time, we get to participate consciously in our own evolution.
https://medium.com/new-earth-consciousness/time-to-be-conscious-why-conscious-evolution-is-this-generations-calling-8d3393ed4c8d
This feels like a 12yr old wrote this? am I crazy? This is surface-level understanding presented as deep insight by someone who's been drinking their own Kool-Aid for decades.