The three main drivers are the arrival of transformative technologies, the looming potential for vast economic growth, plus the right alignment of certain generations. We have them all right now.
I’m 76 years old and really appreciate this essay! You’ve clarified the generational shifts in a way that gives me hope at a time of confusion and uncertainty.
not sure when we had certainty, but i'm only 69. unless you mean the certainty of more litigation, more national debt, and more inane political conflict.
my dad was in korean war. i got a draft card for vietnam war. tried to sign up for first gulf war. remember 9/11 quite well.
in between those military events i remember assassinations, nationwide civil rights riots, cuban missile crisis, practicing putting my head between my knees to be prepared for a soviet nuclear attack, opec imposed oil shortages, the crash of the US auto industry and the invasion of japanese auto makers, the resignation of a president, jimmy carter's stagflation, the aides crisis, fall of the iron curtain, tiananmen square, a federal building bombing in oklahoma, the tech bust in 2000, the banking crisis in 2010, a global cooling environmental collapse scare, a global warming environmental collapse scare, the wiping out of society due to covid...
I'm part of the silent generation, 82 years old, and I'm excited for the young people. I've tried to be on the cutting edge of technology and use AI every day. Not sure how much that will help me with the time I have left, but I'm happy to be a part of the new era.
The lead-up to the fall of the Soviet Union came from the elections of Thatcher, Reagan, and a Polish Pope. We are about to get a new Pope. Hmmm. Pope Francis RIP
This is great stuff, Peter, but I kinda think that this this 'American reinvention' will not happen unless there is a melt-down first- and this is coming within 3-6 months, imho. Check out my overview on this https://youtu.be/GuB4flxZHWo?si=cKpFHfvCajqIJqZg&t=11
I hear you on the melt-down. And I do think there will be some version of that before more of a takeoff. That's Trump's role in doing the dismantling of the old systems at a double time pace that will not end well.
Your theory for our future is interesting yet you are ignoring the current crisis in our form of government. Without some form of sane infrastructure, how will all our exciting developments to harnessed the good of mankind happen? Who was that guy in Russia that this theory was named for? Wasn't he killed by the government because they did not approve?
Kondratiev was killed, but that was by Stalin in the Soviet Union, and we are far from that now. But, yes, we are going to need certainly sane and hopefully visionary government to help with this transition.
I like the thoughts and thought flow. We have different perspectives on innovation - I think society drives technologies and their adoption rate (technology isn't the driver, it is the tool). Each generation will only tolerate so much change, thus the apparent cycles and cycle duration. I'd also say each generation combined with the associated society will only pursue certain innovations.
Another aspect that is not addressed in your essay is that of geopolitics. The current global economic system was established by the US circa 1947. That system was designed to keep the USSR and communism contained. With the fall of the USSR (and recent major decline of Russia) and the rise of China, the US is in the process of shifting its priorities and resources that will radically change global commerce. No more subsidizing Europe. No more keeping middle east energy sources open for the world. No more patrolling the world's sea lanes. No more being the world's police force. This will have a long-term impact on the US economy, with or without the "reinvention" you forecast.
I like where you are going with the geopolitics. It's interesting with iterating a book through Substack you can only take one bite out per essay. I'm going to do one on the bigger picture of geopolitics soon.
Very interesting - plausible and thought provoking frame. Can't wait to see how in future pieces you might tell a story that navigates through the current stresses on the democratic republic itself to capitalize on these forces?
Russ, good to see your face pop up in this conversation. Yeah, those stresses are worrisome. As long as a fair and free voting process is maintained through all I think we can survive quite a bit of transitional trauma. But it does bring up a longer-term set of thoughts about whether this reinvention will also bring serious constitutional reform -- because we can all clearly see how much we need it. The design of 250 years ago is way past its prime too.
I can really support that. Our constitution doesn’t spell out enough to protect us against insurrectionists, con men, and other bad actors. It assumes a level of morality, decency, ethics and common good that we can all see isn’t guaranteed.
Good thought. Was just discussing that very topic with my lawyer-son this weekend. Not sure it's so much past its prime as that's its evolution and never resolved weaknesses could benefit from reform. The underlying principles of a divided, balanced and limited federal government are still a good place to start. Worth thinking more about.
At first glance my view was that increasing freedom allowed for more people's thoughts to enter the common discourse. The first were the American revolutionaries, the second was the freeing of Black people in 1865, the third was the end of WW2 and the entrance of women into the work force, and now we see the entry of immigrants here, and abroad and their contributions to all areas of study and the economy.
I believe it is the relative access to capital that encourages innovation, and I'm not really thinking of Musk (he is depraved!) The people with resources, who also took risks and were polymaths ( I just read the Wikipedia article on Thomas Young) like Thomas Jefferson and Ben Franklin, who have these big world views, are the ones who move the world forward. Obviously, Trump does not qualify because he, by his narcissistic personality alone, is a limiter of people.
We need to find these big thinkers, who also have a passion for righteousness, and support them
Good to zero in on them. I don't have all the answers and if I did, they would be too much for a comment here. But I am mulling how to work that into an essay too.
Your essay states, "America has the potential to drive another historic long boom that could create an economy of great abundance...The fourth American reinvention can now begin." But I wonder if Trump will not destroy the American economy and institutions of higher learning before this can happen. He is already well on his way to doing this. Added to that is the possibility that he will destroy American democracy and lead the country in an altogether different direction and period of long stagnation.
I think the American people, economy and institutions are more resilient than you seem to think. As long as the country remains a democracy, with free and fair elections, the next system can reboot. And if that voting goes, then we are looking at something different, closer to a civil war. But I don't think it will go that far.
I sort of wonder if blockchain might be one of those transformative technologies going forward. Not so much as a new currency but rather something used in the reboot of our govt bureaucracy. I can imagine the upcoming millennials deciding that by voting, renewing your car registration, etc can efficiently be done with your phone with some blockchain solution. While not a wealth generator like the ones you’ve mentioned, it still seems like it has the potential to fundamentally alter how we interact with our govt.
I’m 76 years old and really appreciate this essay! You’ve clarified the generational shifts in a way that gives me hope at a time of confusion and uncertainty.
not sure when we had certainty, but i'm only 69. unless you mean the certainty of more litigation, more national debt, and more inane political conflict.
my dad was in korean war. i got a draft card for vietnam war. tried to sign up for first gulf war. remember 9/11 quite well.
in between those military events i remember assassinations, nationwide civil rights riots, cuban missile crisis, practicing putting my head between my knees to be prepared for a soviet nuclear attack, opec imposed oil shortages, the crash of the US auto industry and the invasion of japanese auto makers, the resignation of a president, jimmy carter's stagflation, the aides crisis, fall of the iron curtain, tiananmen square, a federal building bombing in oklahoma, the tech bust in 2000, the banking crisis in 2010, a global cooling environmental collapse scare, a global warming environmental collapse scare, the wiping out of society due to covid...
not sure where i missed that time of certainty...
I'm part of the silent generation, 82 years old, and I'm excited for the young people. I've tried to be on the cutting edge of technology and use AI every day. Not sure how much that will help me with the time I have left, but I'm happy to be a part of the new era.
The lead-up to the fall of the Soviet Union came from the elections of Thatcher, Reagan, and a Polish Pope. We are about to get a new Pope. Hmmm. Pope Francis RIP
This is great stuff, Peter, but I kinda think that this this 'American reinvention' will not happen unless there is a melt-down first- and this is coming within 3-6 months, imho. Check out my overview on this https://youtu.be/GuB4flxZHWo?si=cKpFHfvCajqIJqZg&t=11
I hear you on the melt-down. And I do think there will be some version of that before more of a takeoff. That's Trump's role in doing the dismantling of the old systems at a double time pace that will not end well.
perhaps we should commit to reconvening in October and see if we still recognize the nation...
it might help if you specifically define "melt-down" and provide a few examples. who knows, maybe we actually agree and i just don't know it...
Your theory for our future is interesting yet you are ignoring the current crisis in our form of government. Without some form of sane infrastructure, how will all our exciting developments to harnessed the good of mankind happen? Who was that guy in Russia that this theory was named for? Wasn't he killed by the government because they did not approve?
Kondratiev was killed, but that was by Stalin in the Soviet Union, and we are far from that now. But, yes, we are going to need certainly sane and hopefully visionary government to help with this transition.
I've had "write an article on longwave theories" on my to do list for a while. Now I don't have to. Good job!
There is plenty of room to write more. I'd be up for seeing it if you ever do write it up.
I like the thoughts and thought flow. We have different perspectives on innovation - I think society drives technologies and their adoption rate (technology isn't the driver, it is the tool). Each generation will only tolerate so much change, thus the apparent cycles and cycle duration. I'd also say each generation combined with the associated society will only pursue certain innovations.
Another aspect that is not addressed in your essay is that of geopolitics. The current global economic system was established by the US circa 1947. That system was designed to keep the USSR and communism contained. With the fall of the USSR (and recent major decline of Russia) and the rise of China, the US is in the process of shifting its priorities and resources that will radically change global commerce. No more subsidizing Europe. No more keeping middle east energy sources open for the world. No more patrolling the world's sea lanes. No more being the world's police force. This will have a long-term impact on the US economy, with or without the "reinvention" you forecast.
Very though provoking piece on your part.
I like where you are going with the geopolitics. It's interesting with iterating a book through Substack you can only take one bite out per essay. I'm going to do one on the bigger picture of geopolitics soon.
I would add a fourth element- space exploration.
Worth consideration, as well as, ocean exploration and exploitation.
Very interesting - plausible and thought provoking frame. Can't wait to see how in future pieces you might tell a story that navigates through the current stresses on the democratic republic itself to capitalize on these forces?
Russ, good to see your face pop up in this conversation. Yeah, those stresses are worrisome. As long as a fair and free voting process is maintained through all I think we can survive quite a bit of transitional trauma. But it does bring up a longer-term set of thoughts about whether this reinvention will also bring serious constitutional reform -- because we can all clearly see how much we need it. The design of 250 years ago is way past its prime too.
I can really support that. Our constitution doesn’t spell out enough to protect us against insurrectionists, con men, and other bad actors. It assumes a level of morality, decency, ethics and common good that we can all see isn’t guaranteed.
Good thought. Was just discussing that very topic with my lawyer-son this weekend. Not sure it's so much past its prime as that's its evolution and never resolved weaknesses could benefit from reform. The underlying principles of a divided, balanced and limited federal government are still a good place to start. Worth thinking more about.
Lays it out. Solid.
At first glance my view was that increasing freedom allowed for more people's thoughts to enter the common discourse. The first were the American revolutionaries, the second was the freeing of Black people in 1865, the third was the end of WW2 and the entrance of women into the work force, and now we see the entry of immigrants here, and abroad and their contributions to all areas of study and the economy.
I believe it is the relative access to capital that encourages innovation, and I'm not really thinking of Musk (he is depraved!) The people with resources, who also took risks and were polymaths ( I just read the Wikipedia article on Thomas Young) like Thomas Jefferson and Ben Franklin, who have these big world views, are the ones who move the world forward. Obviously, Trump does not qualify because he, by his narcissistic personality alone, is a limiter of people.
We need to find these big thinkers, who also have a passion for righteousness, and support them
I am working on next week's piece on this topic. Substack might play a part too....
I am curious at what "the right choices to be made at this critical juncture" are and what can we do to make sure they are made.
Good to zero in on them. I don't have all the answers and if I did, they would be too much for a comment here. But I am mulling how to work that into an essay too.
Plausible, but you ignore the elephant in the room if you don’t put slavery front and center of any discussion regarding the civil war.
I did deal with the slavery issue in the original piece of a couple weeks ago. Here's the link to the actual section within the piece. https://peterleyden.substack.com/i/155955046/the-year-american-reinvention-that-actually-went-into-civil-war
Your essay states, "America has the potential to drive another historic long boom that could create an economy of great abundance...The fourth American reinvention can now begin." But I wonder if Trump will not destroy the American economy and institutions of higher learning before this can happen. He is already well on his way to doing this. Added to that is the possibility that he will destroy American democracy and lead the country in an altogether different direction and period of long stagnation.
I think the American people, economy and institutions are more resilient than you seem to think. As long as the country remains a democracy, with free and fair elections, the next system can reboot. And if that voting goes, then we are looking at something different, closer to a civil war. But I don't think it will go that far.
Will humanity ever evolve beyond the propensity to war? Sigh.
I sort of wonder if blockchain might be one of those transformative technologies going forward. Not so much as a new currency but rather something used in the reboot of our govt bureaucracy. I can imagine the upcoming millennials deciding that by voting, renewing your car registration, etc can efficiently be done with your phone with some blockchain solution. While not a wealth generator like the ones you’ve mentioned, it still seems like it has the potential to fundamentally alter how we interact with our govt.
It’s Not the Economy, It’s Uranus: Why America’s Destiny Rides on the Stars, Not the Market
https://inna2004.substack.com/p/its-not-the-economy-its-uranus-why